Shadow inventory is estimated at more than 7 million. Analysts expect it will take more than 40 months for the distressed properties to even hit the market.. But Fitch shows a more than 50.
Distressed-home sales were 35 percent of the existing-home-sales market, according to the National Association of Realtors, up from 29 percent in September ’09. Further, Fitch Ratings this past November estimated that it would take more than 40 months for the shadow inventory of delinquent loans, foreclosures and bank-owned properties to clear.
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‘Shadow’ real estate inventory may take 4 years to clear S&P: Slower liquidation rates to blame. By Inman News, Wednesday, February 2, 2011. It may take more than four years to clear the "shadow inventory" of distressed homes lurking on the sidelines in the U.S., a factor that’s likely to undermine real estate prices as the backlog clears, analysts at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services say.
Foreclosures in shadow inventory totaled 798,000 (3.2 months’ supply), and REOs in the shadows numbered 342,000 (1.4 months’ supply). Shadow inventory also represents 85 percent of the 2.6 million properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure, or bank-owned.
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REO inventory declined at an accelerated pace in 2012 as investor activity intensified, but the impact of the reduction has been uneven across markets, according to an analysis from CoreLogic. In the data provider’s March MarketPulse report, economist sam khater explained markets in the Midwest and Northeast are still struggling with REO inventory, while the South and Southwest are seeing.
This "only six states" also represent 40% of the population. Now, representing half of shadow inventory instead of just 40% is probably noteworthy. However, it isn’t earth shattering, and may be more of a statement about the states that don’t have a lot of shadow inventory than those that do.
Based on data through the end of the third quarter of 2010, S&P puts the principal balance of the nation’s shadow inventory of distressed homes at more than $450 billion – a log jam that will take 44 months, or more than three and a half years, to clear from the market.
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Whalen explains: “No more than 50% of the REO properties purchased from FHA, for example, can be put on the market for sale as a vacant foreclosure, FHA acting commissioner [Carol] Galante said last.